Do Economic Recoveries Die of Old Age?

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

The U.S. economy is clearly slowing. After adjusting for inflation, GDP grew by 2.9% in 2018, and by an even better 3.1% in 19Q1. But growth slowed to just 2% in 19Q2, is expected to …

What Will Cause the Next Recession?

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

The Great Recession of 2008 is firmly in the rearview mirror. We are now enjoying the longest recovery in U.S. history, the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, wage growth is pretty good, inflation …

China is Slowing and it’s Their Fault

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

Over the last several years, the economic data coming out of China has not been particularly good. GDP growth in 19Q2 was 6.2%, a three-decade low. While the Chinese publicly say that the trade war …

Modern Monetary Theory is Voodoo Economics Redux

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

There is currently widespread frustration with the performance of the global economy. Traditional policy approaches are not delivering the economic results they have in the past. In the U.S., Millennials are poorer, have lower incomes, marry …

wage growth coins on dolly

Why is Wage Growth So Lousy

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

While the most recent jobs report showed the unemployment rate at 4.0% — the lowest rate in almost 50 years — it also showed annual wage gains running at just 3.2%. While that is the …

trade wars United States versus China

Trade Wars: It’s All About Leverage

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

With the U.S.-China trade war looking increasingly ominous, two questions are on the minds of many: do trade deficits matter and which side has more to lose? Economists of almost all stripes agree that trade …

deficit

The Age of Austerity is Over

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

When the Congressional Budget Office made its June 2017 forecast of our fiscal future, it projected a deficit of $689 billion in FY2019. The deficit is now poised to be $1.2 trillion, a dramatic and …

oil rig oil prices

High Storage Levels, and Low Oil Prices

Elliott Eisenberg Economy

Oil prices are again on the decline, despite an announced reduction in supply by the OPEC oil cartel. Why? Dr. Eisenberg says the behavior of speculators and U.S. shale producers, the shape of the curve …